A is the temperature of the water in a swimming pool.
B is the ambient air temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. If you wish to use degrees Centigrade, then use D, where D = 1.8B+ 32.
C is the probability, as a percent, that you will get into the pool.
Of course C will never get above 100, nor will it go below 0. It is after all a probability. So by definition, if (A + B)/2 > 100, then C is set to 100, and if (A + B)/2 < 0, then C is set to 0.
It has been posited by members of my household that while the formula is in general true enough, the accuracy of the formula as a predictor of behavior can be greatly enhanced with the inclusion of an additional term in the equation as follows: (A+B)/2 - E = C, where E is the quotient X/2, X being the integer value of the age of an individual rounded up. There is an intuitiveness to this term. When X is small, it is of little impact to the outcome; only as X increases does it begin to have a significant effect.
Today's numbers illustrate the situation. A(water temp.) = 55, B(air temp.) = 58, so (A+B)/2 = (55+58)/2 = 113/2 = 56.5. This original formula would indicate that there is still a better than chance possibility of someone getting into the pool.
With the new term in the equation, a person who was 8 years old would still have a 52.5% chance of getting into the pool. I, on the other hand, being 58 years old, would reduce the probability by 29 points to a C of 27.5%. Intuitively, this makes a lot of sense.
The new term E was first proposed by Alex Queen after at least two large whiskey and cokes, and so will be known as the Queen--Wow, Do You Have Any More of This Stuff--Variable for Age Adjustment, or more simply as the Potted Queen E.
Ain't science grand?
Evil evil...math so early in the morning.
ReplyDeleteThere's also the gravity part of your equation completely missed. Plot where number of drinks pass 2 increases 33% for each drink after where person DD (designated drunk) will mistakenly walk off into the pool and be 100% wet and suddenly somewhat sober.